ANÁLISIS DE LA PRECIPITACIÓN Y ESCURRIMIENTO EN CINCO CUENCAS DE LA REGIÓN HIDROLÓGICA XI GRIJALVA-VILLAHERMOSA, CONTRASTANDO MÉTODOS TRADICIONALES CON EL MODELO JAPONÉS DE ALTA RESOLUCIÓN

Abstract

Given climate change, which shows a great variability in rainfall and intensified hydrometeorological phenomena, it results essential the study of runoff in watersheds contrasting traditional rainfall-runoff models with rainfall data from weather stations and precipitation forecasts provided by the Japanese Model of High Resolution in the basins of the rivers la Sierra, Tacotalpa, Almendro, Plátanos y Chacté, in the states of Chiapas and Tabasco. The Japanese Model High Resolution is one of the general circulation models which have been developed to understand the functioning and interaction of atmospheric variables, has an excellent spatial resolution (20 km mesh). In the first chapter elaborates on the concepts of climate change, vulnerability, threats and climate risk. The climate change scenarios builded by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are described and also the areas of Mexico that present threat of heavy rains, tropical cyclones and floods. The methods for calculation of design floods that were applied in the thesis are explained in detail in the second chapter. Moreover the concepts of General Circulation Model, weather forecasting and climate prediction are explained in chapter three. Besides is given a reflection on the predictability of climate and the Japanese Model High Resolution is described. The fourth chapter focuses on identifying the study basin and gathers technical information, and performs the calculation of the flood with data from weather stations and precipitation data given by the Japanese Model. Finally in the fifth chapter is presented an analysis of cumulative rainfall for the rainy season (May to November) given by a mesh point of the Japanese Model and the weather station Jalapa (27019). There is also talk about the uncertainty in working with general circulation models, although a model is accurate, it is still an approximation to reality and is always sensitive to errors of various kinds, and the more complex the system represents, the greater errors involve the results. The development of such models and their improvement is essential to further understand these phenomena and methods of analysis and solution and fundamental to undertake appropriate actions and works to mitigate the effects of these changes in the variability of the climate system which are largely caused by man. These models are key to future research on climate change. Therefore it is very important to compare the rainfall data taken by the Japanese model and measurements of climatological stations using the traditional rainfall-runoff methods to determine their validity and reliability.